As you may have guessed, I'm opposed to the oppressive lawsuits the RIAA has been filing against such "criminals" as 12-year-old girls. The RIAA claims that services such as Napster and Kazaa have been lowering music sales. I'll rebut this in two ways:
1st: I recently came into some money, and in a two-week period, I spent nearly $200.00 on CD's. The point here is that the sales of music are dependent upon disposable income, and a fortiori, on the state of the economy in general. When people have money, they buy luxury items like CD's. When people don't have money, they don't buy them.
2nd: Harvard just released a study which shows that file sharing isn't killing music sales. Here are a few quotes:
"Big record labels have seen their sales slide precipitously in the past several years, and have blamed the falling revenue in large part on rampant free music downloads online. Others have pointed to additional factors, such as lower household spending during the recession, and increased competition from other entertainment forms such as DVDs and video games, each of which have grown over the same time period." (Emphasis added.)
As important as the quote above is, my favorite is this one:
"While downloads occur on a vast scale, most users are likely individuals who would not have bought the album even in the absence of file sharing." (Emphasis added.)
This is the point I've been yelling about for years. When I hear one song on the radio, I'm not likely to rush out and buy an entire CD to discover that, lo and behold, the rest of the CD is garbage. I'm not alone, according to Harvard's study. The problem here is that record labels don't like to release singles of popular songs, and when they do, the singles are often seven to ten dollars; why not spend a few dollars more and get the whole CD?
Here's another good quote:
"Moreover, their data seemed to show that downloads could even have a slight positive effect on the sales of the top albums, the researchers said."
This is very true in my case. I've downloaded many songs by artists I've never heard of, liked them, and then spent money buying their CD's. The lesson to be learned is that when people can listen to music for free, they're more likely to go outside their comfort zone and discover artists that they like.
When I was younger, I used to go to Blockbuster Music all the time. You could take any CD in the store up to a listening station and try it out. I listened to hundreds of CD's I had never heard of, and bought probably 10% of the CD's I listened to. By being able to try it before I bought it, I was willing to take the risk of an unknown artist, or lesser-known CD from a popular artist. Of course, Blockbuster Music closed. I believe it ran into pressure from the record labels, who for some reason, didn't want consumers to be able to hear a whole CD before they committed to purchasing it.
With today's MP3 technology, a reiteration of Blockbuster Music could open back up and not have the hassle of having to return open CD's to the shelves: hard drives are cheap enough that each store could have a music server with a terabyte of drive space, which would be enough to store roughly 250,000 songs in MP3 format at 128k. Going to WMA or a lower quality MP3 could mean each store could have 500,000 songs on the network. With a nice touchscreen interface, and a music recommendation system similar to that of Amazon.com, people could browse through hundreds of CD's and make immediate purchases of music they like.
Of course, this short-circuit's the industry's model of signing new artists into oppressive contracts, hyping the hell out of that new artist, and manufacturing mega-stars that generate enormous profits for everyone involved except the actual artist. The industry certainly wouldn't want people to buy from artists that receive larger royalties, or worse yet, the dreaded indie labels.
My prediction is that the record labels will begin to heavily push either Super Audio CD's or DVD audio discs very heavily in an attempt to eliminate the standard compact disc, since SACD's and DVD audio discs have copy protection that CD's can't touch, and laws prevent manufacturers from developing devices or software that circumvents those protections.
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